It’s becoming more likely that a key global temperature limit will be reached in one of the next five years.
A major study says by 2025 there’s a 40% chance of at least one year being 1.5C hotter than the pre-industrial level.
That’s the lower of two temperature limits set by the Paris Agreement on climate change.
The conclusion comes in a report published by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
The analysis is based on modelling by the UK Met Office and climate researchers in 10 countries including the US and China.
In the last decade, it was estimated that the chance of any one year reaching the 1.5C threshold was only 20%.
This new assessment puts that risk at 40%.
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Leon Hermanson, a senior Met Office scientist, told BBC News that comparing projected temperatures with those of 1980-1900 shows a clear rise.