Markets are acting like the global economy is headed for a slowdown, according to Bank of America.
Unprecedented amounts of fiscal and monetary stimulus have been unleashed into the global economy, yet reopening trades and other trades indicating increased appetite for risk-taking are seeing a W-shaped recovery, indicating momentum is petering out.
The tale of the tape is “recessionary,” wrote Michael Harnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America, pointing to the action in U.S. Treasurys, commodities and global equity markets.
In the U.S., the yield curve when measured by the five-year and 30-year yields, fell to 110 basis points this week, the flattest in a year. A flatter yield curve indicates growth is likely to slow in the months ahead.
At the same time, global stock markets, excluding U.S. technology shares, are unchanged over the past eight months, according to Hartnett. Commodities like oil, copper and palladium, which benefit from a growing economy, have fallen up to 23% from their recent peaks.
Within the S&P 500, the defensive sectors, like utilities, health care, REITs and consumer staples, are among the top performers during the second half of this year.