U.S. futures climbed and most stocks in Asia dropped Monday, with investors assessing inflation risks as economic activity ramps up. The dollar held onto gains.
Hong Kong fell, while Australia and South Korea fluctuated. Japan, China and the U.K. are among markets closed for holidays. U.S. futures rose after stocks dropped from a record Friday, amid data pointing to price pressures and talk of a possible pullback in central bank support. Still, the S&P 500 Index capped its biggest monthly rally since November.
Australia’s 10-year government bond yield edged higher, after the Treasury benchmark held above 1.6%. Crude oil swung between gains and losses.
Inflation remains a key concern for investors. The latest U.S. data show fiscal stimulus helped drive the strongest monthly gains in personal incomes in records going back to 1946, and the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of prices rose by the most since 2018. Though last year’s pandemic shock has skewed some data, such readings fuel speculation that central banks may start to withdraw support by trimming asset purchases.
“Interest rates going forward will be led more by expectations on the tapering from the Fed rather than by inflation,” Raffaele Bertoni, head of debt capital markets at Gulf Investment Corp., said on Bloomberg Television.
In his latest annual meeting, billionaire Warren Buffett warned of rising price pressures and a “buying frenzy” spurred by low interest rates. Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, who’s not currently a voter on the rate-setting committee, said signs of excessive risk-taking suggest it’s time to consider fewer bond purchases. His remarks contrast with those of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
Top U.S. financial officials are downplaying inflation risks. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on the weekend that the demand boost from President Biden’s economic plan would be spread over a decade.
Elsewhere, India’s virus crisis is worsening, with daily deaths hitting another record on Sunday. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has come under fire for his handling of the Covid-19 crisis and his party lost a key state election.
Here are some key events to watch this week:
A slew of manufacturing PMIs are due Monday, including from U.S. and ChinaFed Chair Powell speaks in an event hosted by the National Community Reinvestment CoalitionThe Reserve Bank of Australia monetary policy decision is due TuesdayThe Treasury announces its quarterly refunding on WednesdayChicago Fed President Charles Evans gives a virtual speech on the U.S. economy at an event hosted by Bard College; Cleveland Fed’s Loretta Mester speaks to the Boston Economic Club on WednesdayBank of England rate decision ThursdayU.S. April employment report is released on Friday